Russian hybrid war?

He addresses the fact that cables have been cut, drones have disrupted planes in European countries and that a drone with ammunition should have hit a Ukrainian plane at a German airport. These are apparently hostile actions with no clear sender. Hybrid war has become a frequently used term, and Russia is believed to be waging such a hybrid war in Europe.

The term's popularity dates back to a 2013 article written by the current Chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov. It addresses how the line between peace and war has been blurred. British historian Mark Galeotti spoke of the "Gerasimov Doctrine." It was believed that "hybrid war" was an essential part of this doctrine. The problem is that such a doctrine does not exist. Galeotti regretted that his article had been misunderstood. Gerasimov was actually describing Western activity, not Russian. He spoke of Western countries that resorted to what is today described as "hybrid war."

Actually, such a "hybrid war" in the 80s was the very basis for President Ronald Reagan's "war" against the Soviet Union. This was emphasised by his Secretary of State in the Ministry of Defence, Fred Iklé. Reagan wanted a victory, but one could not have an open war with Moscow, because such a war could be escalated into a nuclear war. Sabotage, psychological operations or guerrilla operations with an unknown sender were therefore used. We did not call it "hybrid war" at the time, but "Low Intensity Conflict" or "LIC".

For example, small submarines were sent into Swedish archipelagos and naval bases, which most people, and at least 99% of all journalists, believed were Soviet submarines. Many Swedes, including officers, believed that Sweden was effectively at war with Moscow, but US Secretary of Defence Caspar Weinberger, Secretary of the Navy John Lehman and British Secretary of the Navy, Keith Speed, later confirmed that it was US-British activity. It was necessary to test Swedish readiness, it was said. The decision had been made by CIA chief Bill Casey. The Russians did not enter Swedish archipelagos or naval bases, said his deputy CIA chief and former head of naval intelligence, Admiral Bobby Ray Inman. And what happened in Sweden at that time is almost identical to what is happening today. The mysterious submarines have been replaced with mysterious drones from an unknown sender.

In Finland, in the Baltic countries, and in Poland, it has been confirmed in several cases that Ukrainian drones have gone astray, including when Ukraine wanted to attack the St. Petersburg area. It may be wise not to jump to conclusions, and it is unlikely that the Russians will test German or others' preparedness.